This Friday's nonfarm payrolls report is set to present a significant challenge for Wall Street, as the financial markets have been nervous all week due to an unexpectedly robust labor market. The concern is that if the tight labor market continues to thrive, the Federal Reserve may maintain high-interest rates, potentially posing a risk to the U.S. economy at a critical juncture.
According to economists surveyed by Dow Jones, it is anticipated that the month of September will witness the addition of approximately 170,000 new jobs. Anything significantly beyond this number could send shockwaves through the market, as good news could paradoxically be perceived as bad news.
Quincy Krosby, Chief Global Strategist at LPL Financial, emphasized, "The market evaluates every aspect of the report from the perspective of the Federal Reserve. Clearly, the market is hoping for a headline figure that reinforces a labor market that has experienced a slowdown but remains resilient."
Earlier this week, the Labor Department reported a surprising surge in job openings in August, reaching their highest level since spring and reversing the recent trend of declines. Fed officials closely monitor this metric as an indicator of labor market tightness.
Following this report, the stock market experienced a sharp decline on Tuesday, raising concerns that another downward slide might be in store if Friday's job numbers also show strength. Additionally, Treasury yields reached a 16-year high, potentially reflecting concerns about higher interest rates from the Fed.
Jonathan Pingle, Chief Economist at UBS, stated on CNBC, "If we see a slew of strong data here, it can very easily put a November rate hike back on the table for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)," which is the central bank's rate-setting body.
Currently, the markets assign a low probability to a Fed rate hike at its next meeting, which concludes on November 1. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, as of Thursday afternoon, there is only a 19.6% chance of an increase. Even for December, the probability is just 32.6%.
Nevertheless, this outlook could change with a strong payroll report, as some experts on Wall Street anticipate.
For instance, Goldman Sachs predicts job growth of 200,000, while Citigroup is even more optimistic, expecting 240,000. On Wednesday, ADP reported an increase of only 89,000 in private payrolls for September, though this figure often diverges significantly from the Labor Department's official count.
Furthermore, weekly jobless claims have been consistently declining over the past few weeks, suggesting that employers may be hesitant to reduce their payrolls.
Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, explained, "When economic conditions become less certain, the typical response of employers is to hire fewer workers. We will probably see more evidence of this on Friday, but, overall, employers are not yet inclined to reduce their workforce, as indicated by the still-low level of initial claims."
Market observers will also closely examine worker wages and the labor force participation rate.
Expectations on the wage front suggest a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings, a notable improvement from the 0.1% increase observed in August. The unemployment rate, influenced by labor force participation, is expected to dip slightly to 3.7%.
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